The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service recently reported that China imported a record 37.8 million tons of major feed grains between October 2023 and May 2024. This nearly doubled the volume from the same period the previous year, driven by significant discounts on imported grains, particularly at South China ports.
Surge in corn imports
Corn imports during this period reached 20.7 million tons, with Brazil supplying 14.8 million tons. Brazil’s competitive pricing, attributed to a bountiful harvest, has made it an attractive source for China. Despite large domestic corn supplies, Brazilian corn was priced at $285 per ton compared to $348 per ton for local Chinese corn as of late June 2024. The remaining 5.9 million tons of corn were sourced primarily from the United States and Ukraine. Notably, U.S. corn exports to China were the lowest since the 2019/20 period, totaling 2.1 million tons.
Barley and sorghum imports
China’s barley imports soared to 11.7 million tons, setting a new record, while sorghum imports reached 5.2 million tons, the highest since the 2015/16 period. These imports are attractive as they are not restricted by tariff-rate quotas. The majority of sorghum was supplied by the United States, while barley imports mainly came from France, Australia, and Argentina. The decline in prices for both grains due to improved global supplies has bolstered importer margins and elevated demand.
Future outlook
Looking ahead to 2024/25, China’s imports of major feed grains are expected to soften due to smaller crop yields in the European Union, Canada, and Australia, reducing barley imports. Additionally, lower sorghum acreage in the United States is anticipated to temper growth in sorghum imports. Combined with sufficient corn supplies and larger domestic production, overall feed grain imports are projected to decrease next year.
Global production and trade
Global grain production is forecasted to hit a record high for 2024/25, with increases in the United States, Pakistan, Canada, and Argentina. Consumption is also expected to reach a record level, driven by higher feed, residual use, and food, seed, and industrial use. However, global trade is projected to decline slightly. Global stocks are raised, although they remain at their lowest levels since 2015/16, with significant increases in the United States and China.
Wheat and rice markets
U.S. wheat prices have declined due to the ongoing winter wheat harvest and larger-than-anticipated carry-in stocks. Globally, wheat prices from major exporters like Russia, the European Union, Argentina, and Canada have also dropped due to harvest pressures and improved crop conditions.
In the rice market, global production, exports, and consumption are forecasted to increase, driven by a larger crop in Pakistan. Import forecasts are higher for Malaysia and Côte d’Ivoire, while ending stocks are also up due to increased supplies in Malaysia and Pakistan.
Coarse grains
Global corn production for 2024/25 is expected to rise, with the United States offsetting reductions in the European Union, Canada, and Russia. Despite this, global trade is forecasted to increase slightly, driven by higher U.S. exports. The U.S. season-average farm price is projected to decrease to $4.30 per bushel.
