The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service (ERS) has projected a decrease in per capita consumption of red meat and poultry for 2025, according to the latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report. The forecast indicates a decline from 227.7 pounds in 2024 to 226.1 pounds in 2025, primarily due to reduced consumption of beef and pork.
Red meat
Beef production is set to increase slightly in 2024 and 2025, driven by higher expected steer and heifer slaughter. However, this will be offset by a decline in cow slaughter. Despite higher production, per capita beef consumption is projected to fall from 58.2 pounds in 2024 to 56.3 pounds in 2025.
Pork consumption is also expected to decrease marginally in 2025 after rising to 51 pounds in 2024. The breeding herd has decreased by 3% compared to the previous year, although a record-high litter rate has increased the pig crop.
Poultry and eggs
Broiler consumption, which constitutes the largest share of meat consumption per capita, is expected to rise from 101.3 pounds in 2024 to 102.0 pounds in 2025. Despite this increase, it will not fully compensate for the reductions in beef, pork, and turkey consumption. Turkey production is forecasted to decline due to recent outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), impacting both 2024 and 2025 projections.
Table egg production is projected to increase slightly in 2024 based on recent flock data, with corresponding adjustments in exports and prices.
Dairy sector
The dairy sector is seeing an upward revision in the forecast for the average number of milk cows to 9.350 million head for 2024, reflecting improved margins. However, forecasts for milk per cow and total milk production have been lowered. The all-milk price for 2024 is now forecast at $22.25 per hundredweight (cwt), up $0.65 from last month's forecast. For 2025, the dairy herd size is expected to increase further, with an all-milk price forecasted at $22.50 per cwt.
Summary of other livestock
The report highlights higher beef and pork production for 2024, with beef production expected to rise due to higher steer and heifer slaughter rates. However, the pork sector is experiencing lower exports due to weak demand and U.S. dollar appreciation.
Broiler production estimates for 2024 have been adjusted down, while exports have been adjusted up based on recent data. Turkey production is projected to decrease due to HPAI outbreaks, with lower production forecasts for both 2024 and 2025.
Overall, the forecast indicates a slight decline in total per capita consumption of red meat and poultry, highlighting the evolving dynamics in the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors.
