The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its latest Feed Outlook report, revealing significant updates in U.S. and global grain production and trade for the 2024/25 marketing year. The report highlights an increase in U.S. corn production and adjustments in global coarse grain production and trade.
Increased corn production
The 2024/25 U.S. feed grain supply forecast has been raised to 449.9 million metric tons, an increase of 2.1 million metric tons from the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). This increase is primarily driven by higher planted and harvested corn acreage. The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimates 91.5 million acres of corn planted for the 2024/25 marketing year, up 1.4 million acres from the March Prospective Plantings report. Major corn-producing states like Kansas, Iowa, and North Dakota have reported significant increases in planted acreage.
Despite the increase in corn production, the overall U.S. feed grain use is projected to rise by 2.2 million metric tons, resulting in a slight decline in ending stocks, now projected at 56.3 million metric tons. The increase in production is expected to impact prices received by farmers positively.
Global coarse grain production adjustments
While U.S. production is on the rise, foreign coarse grain production for 2024/25 is projected to be lower, down 4.6 million tons. This reduction is primarily due to decreased barley and corn output in the European Union and Canada. Prolonged early-season heat in Russia has also negatively impacted corn yields.
Despite the decline in foreign production, the overall global coarse grain output is projected to be 1.2 million tons higher, reaching 1,512.4 million tons, due to increased U.S. production.
Changes in global trade
The July forecast for world coarse grain exports for the 2024/25 international trade year is 1.3 million tons lower, primarily due to reduced barley exports from Russia, the European Union, and Canada. However, U.S. corn exports are expected to rise by 1 million tons to 56 million, offsetting some of the reductions in foreign export levels.
For the 2023/24 international trade year, global coarse grain production is also projected lower, driven by a 1 million ton decrease in Argentine corn output. Mexico and Pakistan are also expected to see reduced corn yields due to adverse weather conditions.
Corn supply and use
The 2024/25 U.S. corn supply is projected at 17,002 million bushels, up 95 million bushels from the June WASDE forecast. This increase is attributed to higher planted and harvested acreage. However, beginning stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year are estimated at 1,877 million bushels, a reduction of 145 million bushels from the June estimate.
U.S. corn inventories as of June 1 totaled 4.99 billion bushels, a 22% increase from the previous year. Most of this increase is held on farms, indicating that farmers have been reluctant to sell due to lower prices.
Future outlook
The USDA projects that U.S. corn used for ethanol, exports, and feed will continue to support higher corn use in the 2023/24 marketing year. U.S. corn exports are raised by 75 million bushels to 2,225 million, driven by ample supplies and competitive prices. The USDA expects feed and residual corn use to exceed prior expectations, reaching 5,775 million bushels.
Globally, the USDA anticipates shifts in coarse grain trade dynamics, with increased U.S. exports offsetting declines from other major exporters. The report underscores the importance of monitoring weather conditions and market developments as the 2024/25 marketing year progresses.
For detailed tables and further information on the changes in coarse grain production and trade, refer to the full USDA Feed Outlook report.
