USDA has released its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).
WHEAT: The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly lower supplies, unchanged domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are lowered, on decreased imports with a weaker-than-expected pace for Hard Red Spring (HRS). Exports are lowered 20 million bushels to 840 million on slowing export sales and shipments with equivalent reductions for Hard Red Winter and HRS. Additionally, U.S. export prices are expected to remain elevated the rest of 2021/22, further diminishing U.S. competitiveness.
Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 15 million bushels to 598 million but are still 29% lower than last year.
The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for higher supplies, greater consumption, increased trade, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected rising by 4.3 million tons to 1,067.5 million, primarily on the combination of increased beginning stocks for Australia and the EU and upward production revisions for Australia, Russia, and Canada.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn supply and use outlook is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price remains at $5.45 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1,501.7 million. The foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, increased trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for the EU and Ukraine more than offset a reduction for China.
RICE: The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice is for reduced supplies, unchanged domestic use, slightly lower exports, and fractionally lower ending stocks compared with last month. The import forecast is reduced 1.5 million cwt to 33.5 million, based on a slow pace of shipments through October and expectations of continued high freight costs and limited container availability the rest of 2021/22.
OILSEEDS: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2021/22 is forecast at 130.3 million tons, up slightly due to an increase for cottonseed. Soybean supply and use projections for 2021/22 are unchanged from last month.
Although soybean crush is unchanged, soybean oil production is raised on a higher extraction rate. With increased soybean oil supplies, food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil is raised, offsetting lower consumption of canola and cottonseed oils.
Based on a review of EPA's proposed rule for 2020-2022 renewable fuel obligation targets, soybean oil used for biofuel for 2021/22 is unchanged at 11 billion pounds. The U.S. season-average soybean and soybean oil price forecasts for 2021/22 are unchanged at $12.10 per bushel and 65.0 cents per pound, respectively. The soybean meal price forecast is increased $5 to $330 per short ton.
The 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production and lower ending stocks compared to last month.
