Cuba’s ongoing economic struggles, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and recent natural disasters, have led to worsening food insecurity, which directly impacts the country’s ability to import agricultural products, including those from the United States. A new study by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) highlights the decline in Cuba’s domestic food production and its growing reliance on imports to meet the nutritional needs of its population.
The study reveals that Cuba’s production of key crops has significantly decreased over the past seven years. Corn production fell by 38%, while rice production dropped by 58%. Cuba’s sugar exports, once a vital source of foreign income to finance food imports, plummeted by over 90%. These declines are largely attributed to hurricanes, flooding, and droughts, alongside the lingering effects of the pandemic.
Cuba now heavily depends on staple commodity imports like chicken meat, wheat, and rice to fill its food gap. However, the country faces difficulties earning the foreign currency needed to fund these imports due to economic challenges, including high domestic food prices and limited access to critical agricultural inputs such as fuel and fertilizer.
According to the ERS’s International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model, about 12.8% of Cuba’s population (1.4 million people) was food insecure in 2023, with a daily food gap of 225 calories per person. This equates to an annual food gap of approximately 41,000 metric tons of grain equivalents. Under an alternative scenario with adjusted GDP per capita, up to 37.8% of the population could be food insecure.
Despite Cuba’s deteriorating food security, U.S. agricultural exports to the island have steadily increased in recent years, rising from $157 million in 2020 to $337 million in 2023. Chicken meat accounted for the majority of these exports, making up nearly 90% of the total during 2020–23. This trend contrasts with the more diversified trade patterns seen after past natural disasters in Cuba.
While the United States remains a significant supplier of agricultural products to Cuba, other countries, including the European Union, Brazil, and Russia, also play key roles in the island’s food imports. Russia, for instance, donated 25,000 metric tons of wheat to Cuba in 2023. U.S. agricultural imports from Cuba, however, have remained close to zero since the early 1970s due to ongoing trade restrictions.
The study underscores the challenges Cuba faces in securing food for its population and highlights the potential impact on U.S. agricultural exports, particularly as Cuba continues to grapple with economic and food security issues.
