As the winter holidays approach, the specter of high food prices looms over festive tables across the country. Farmdoc daily delved into the findings of the Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey to unravel how consumers are grappling with increased costs and adapting their holiday meal plans. Additionally, we explore the protein preferences of consumers during the Christmas season and the influence of inflation on these choices.
The Gardner Food and Agriculture Policy Survey, conducted quarterly, engages approximately 1,000 participants matching the US population's demographics. The insights shared below are from the seventh wave of the survey, undertaken in November 2023
Inflation takes it's toll on holiday spending
Inflation, a persistent concern over the past two years, continues to be a significant factor influencing consumer behavior. Recent data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates a 0.2% rise in food prices over the last month, with a 2.9% increase compared to the previous year. Despite a cooling trend in overall inflation, heightened costs and holiday demands have left a considerable portion of consumers concerned. More than two-thirds of participants, who typically celebrate winter holidays with a meal, anticipate that rising food prices will impact their holiday meal plans.
In response to this concern, participants shared various strategies to manage the cost of their holiday meals. The most popular approaches included shopping for deals on ingredients (52.0%) and early shopping to spread out costs (40.4%). Notably, reducing the number and amounts of foods on the menu also featured prominently. Open-responses highlighted potential cutbacks in desserts, appetizers, and side dishes.
Rising prices change meat demand
Consumers looking to mitigate costs were also asked about their willingness to adjust their protein choices. Approximately 16.9% of those anticipating rising food prices expressed plans to reduce the amount of meat served during their holiday meals. Responses indicated potential shifts to smaller portions or alternative meat options.
Some participants, however, emphasized the significance of preserving traditional holiday meals, with a focus on shopping for deals rather than altering the menu. A participant stated, "Not much at all. These meals are important to my family, and we always follow the same traditions when it comes to purchasing foods for these meals. We will just look for deals." Another emphasized, "Spending less on gifts and travel. The family meal is the most important part of the holidays."
Pork stays on holiday tables
Zooming in on Christmas dinner plans, the survey explored protein preferences among participants who typically celebrate the holiday with a meal. Pork, particularly in the form of ham, emerged as the top choice, with nearly half of consumers (49.7%) planning to include it in their Christmas meals. Turkey (43.5%) and beef (34.4%) followed closely. Less popular choices included fish and other seafood, non-turkey birds (e.g., duck, goose, game hen), and lamb. Only 7.3% of participants expressed plans to serve non-meat proteins (e.g., tofu, beans), while merely 4.4% considered skipping a protein altogether.
Comparing the protein choices of consumers expecting inflation to impact their holiday meal with those who did not, the survey found that, in general, both groups favored pork, turkey, and beef. However, those anticipating rising food prices were more likely to choose non-traditional proteins like birds, lamb, and non-meat options.
The Gardner Food and Agricultural Survey paints a picture of consumers adjusting to the challenges of rising food prices, with savvy shopping and adjustments to meal compositions. While inflation casts a shadow on the holiday season, the importance of festive meals persists, driving consumers to find innovative ways to preserve traditions amidst economic uncertainties.
Kalaitzandonakes, M., J. Coppess and B. Ellison. "Eat, Drink, and Be Merry? How US Consumers Expect Inflation to Impact their Holiday Meals." farmdoc daily (13):227, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, December 14, 2023. Permalink
