The U.S. Department of Agriculture's North American Grain and Oilseed Crushing Annual Summary reveals a significant increase in the global soybean crush forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year, reaching a record-high 352.8 million metric tons.
The 2.9 million metric ton increase is primarily driven by higher crush rates in China, Argentina, Thailand, Ukraine, and Pakistan, supported by growing demand for soybean meal and oil.
Global consumption forecasts for soybean meal and oil have risen by 1% and 2% respectively, with meal consumption expected to reach 270.4 million metric tons and oil consumption estimated at 67.6 million metric tons.
Despite the increased demand, global soybean ending stocks are projected to decline but remain at record-high levels, as production estimates remain nearly unchanged.
In the United States, soybean exports for September 2024-January 2025 totaled 1.3 billion bushels, up 18% from the same period last year. The USDA maintains its forecast of 1.8 billion bushels for the marketing year.
U.S. soybean crush rates continue to show strength, with the January 2025 crush totaling 212.6 million bushels, an increase of 18.3 million bushels from January 2024.
The season-average soybean price forecast has been lowered to $9.95 per bushel, while meal and oil prices remain unchanged at $310.00 per short ton and 43 cents per pound, respectively.
The report also notes increased U.S. soybean oil exports, which reached 900 million pounds from October 2024 through January 2025, significantly higher than the previous year's figures for the same period.
