The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects an 8% rise in U.S. soybean supply for the marketing year (MY) 2024/25, driven by higher carryover stocks and near-record soybean production. U.S. soybean production is forecast to reach 4.45 billion bushels, fueled by a 3.5% increase in planted area and a yield of 52.0 bushels/acre.
Key highlights:
U.S. soybean production and stocks: U.S. soybean ending stocks are expected to climb to 445 million bushels, up 105 million from MY 2023/24. The season-average farm price for soybeans is forecast to drop to $11.20 per bushel from $12.55 in MY 2023/24.
Global soybean production: Global soybean production is projected to hit a record 422.3 million metric tons, an increase of 25.3 million metric tons from MY 2023/24. This growth is led by record-high production in Brazil and a slight increase in Argentina.
Soybean exports and crush volumes: Global soybean exports and crush volumes are forecast to rise by 7.7 million metric tons and 15.9 million metric tons, respectively, reaching 180.2 million metric tons and 345.9 million metric tons. Global soybean ending stocks are projected to increase by 16.7 million metric tons to 128.5 million metric tons.
Domestic Outlook:
Production and acreage: U.S. soybean production for MY 2024/25 is expected to surpass the previous year by 285 million bushels. Farmers plan to plant 86.5 million acres, up 2.9 million acres from last year.
Demand and exports: U.S. soybean exports are forecast to rise to 1.83 billion bushels, driven by higher global demand. U.S. soybean crush is expected to reach a record 2.43 billion bushels, supporting increased domestic and export demand for soybean meal and oil.
Soybean oil and meal: Soybean oil production is projected to increase to 28.5 billion pounds, with strong demand driven by biofuel production and higher domestic consumption. Soybean oil prices are forecast to decline to $0.42 per pound. Soybean meal production is forecast at a record 57.1 million short tons, with prices expected to drop to $330.00 per short ton.
Other oilseeds outlook:
Canola: U.S. canola production is forecast to decrease slightly, but higher imports from Canada are expected to offset this. Canola oil demand is projected to grow by 7%, driven by a 15% increase in biofuel use.
Sunflowerseed: U.S. sunflowerseed production is forecast to decline to 1.6 billion pounds, with oil-type sunflowerseed production down to 1.4 billion pounds. Sunflowerseed prices are expected to rise due to tighter stocks.
Peanuts: U.S. peanut production is forecast to increase to 6.3 billion pounds. Peanut exports are projected to decline to 1.3 billion pounds due to higher South American supplies, while domestic food use and crush volumes are expected to rise.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed production is forecast to increase to 5.0 million short tons. Cottonseed crush is projected to reach 1.55 million short tons, with exports rising to 450,000 short tons. Cottonseed prices are expected to decline to $207.00 per short ton.
Overall, the USDA's projections indicate a significant increase in global soybean supply for MY 2024/25, driven by higher production in the U.S. and South America, leading to increased exports and crush volumes.
